Expulsions of diplomats bad sign for Pakistan-India peace process

August 7, 2006 - 0:0
ISLAMABAD (AFP) -- India and Pakistan's tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats is a bad omen for their already troubled peace process, analysts said on Sunday.

Pakistan on Saturday ordered Indian diplomat Deepak Kaul to leave the country for suspected spying and India reciprocated within hours by expelling an official from Islamabad's embassy in New Delhi. Pakistani Foreign Office spokeswoman Tasnim Aslam said Kaul, councilor at the Indian High Commission (embassy) in Islamabad, was "caught indulging in practices incompatible to his status."

He was declared persona non grata, or an unwanted person in diplomatic language, and told to leave the country within 48 hours.

India lodged a protest and within hours announced the expulsion of Pakistani diplomat Sayed Mohammed Rafiq Ahmed, who held the rank of councilor at the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi.

India gave no reason for Ahmed's expulsion. The rivals last expelled diplomats in February 2003.

Analysts said the developments were a bad sign for the fledgling peace process started in 2004 between the nuclear-armed South Asian rivals who have fought three wars and returned from the brink of a nuclear conflict in 2002.

"Expulsions of diplomats after nearly three-and-a-half years is definitely a setback," political analyst Mohammaed Afzal Niazi told AFP.

Senior officials of the Indian and Pakistani foreign ministries last met in Bangladesh's capital Dhaka on the sidelines of a regional summit last week but seemed to make no progress on the peace process.

"It (expulsions) is a clear indicator that the meeting did not go well," Niazi said, adding that otherwise the issue of alleged espionage by an Indian diplomat could have been dealt with more discreetly.

Pakistan Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Tasnim Aslam said that Islamabad did not want to bring the expulsions into the media spotlight and blamed India for leaking the story. Another political analyst Talat Masood, a retired army general, described the developments as "very disturbing for the peace process."

"It shows a lack of confidence in the two countries," he said.

"It is also very unfortunate if Kaul was caught red-handed."

Masood said the expulsions indicate that "the peace process was not steady and stable."

Hasan Askari, the former head of the political science department at the prestigious Punjab University, agreed that "this incident is likely to put further strains on the already troubled peace process."

Tensions were already growing between the two countries since last month's terrorist attacks on commuter trains in India's financial hub Mumbai.

India postponed formal foreign secretary-level talks last month following serial train blasts in Mumbai that killed 183 people, saying Pakistani "elements" were involved.

Pakistan has demanded proof of India's allegations and offered to help in the investigation into the blasts.

New Delhi has frequently accused Pakistan of fomenting violence against Indian targets -- charges that Islamabad denies.

In their peace talks, the two sides have made progress in establishing increased trade and people-to-people contacts but made no headway on the crucial issue of Kashmir, the trigger of two of the three wars they have fought.

Both sides hold Kashmir in part but claim it in full. A deadly separatist Islamic insurgency has been under way in the Indian zone since 1989.